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Monthly South Lake Tahoe Real Estate Review

December South Lake Tahoe Real Estate Market Update

South Lake Tahoe Real Estate market update:

Experts Project Home Prices Will Rise over the Next 5 Years Nationally, Including Lake Tahoe

South Lake Tahoe Real Estate update: Even though the median sales price in South Lake Tahoe has been on the decline, experts predict that we will see a recovery in 2014. The current median sales price according to the South Lake Tahoe MLS is $692,500 which is down 3.7% from last year and down from $721,000 in February, 2022. 

The South Lake Tahoe Real Estate market has started to pick up some momentum now that mortgage interest rates have dropped about 1% since they reached over 8%, the highest they have been in over 20 years. Currently, buyers with a good FICO score can obtain a 30 year fixed mortgage for around 7.22%.

There are currently 49 pending single family homes and condo/townhouses on the South Tahoe MLS which is up from only 32 pending sales last year on 12/6/22. 

The good news for homebuyers is that we now have 142 active listings (122 single family homes and 20 condo/townhouses), last year to date, there were only 87 active listings.

The 49 pending sales represent 25.7% of the total inventory in escrow and the breakdown by price range of the 49 escrows is as follows:

  • Under $200,000- 0  0%
  • $201,000 to $300,000- 2   4.1%
  • $301,000 to $400,000- 3  10.2%
  • $401,000 to $500,000- 5
  • $501,000 to $600,000- 6
  • $601,000 to $700,000- 10
  • $701,000 to $800,000- 6
  • $801,000 to $999,000- 5
  • Over $1 Million- 12  24.5%

 

The overall closings for 2023 is significantly down from 2022. So far there have been 402 total closings on the South Lake Tahoe MLS compared to 610 last year. 

On the National level

Even with so much data showing home prices are actually rising in most of the country, there are still a lot of people who worry there will be another price crash in the immediate future. In fact, a recent survey from Fannie Mae shows that 23% of consumers think prices will fall over the next 12 months. That’s nearly one in four people who are dealing with that fear – maybe you’re one of them.

To help ease that concern, here’s what the experts say will happen with home prices not just next year, but over the next five years.

Experts Project Ongoing Appreciation

While seeing a small handful of expert opinions may not be enough to change your mind, hopefully, a larger group of experts will reassure you. Here’s that larger group.

The Home Price Expectation Survey (HPES) from Pulsenomics is a great resource to show what experts forecast for home prices over a five-year period. It includes projections from over 100 economists, investment strategists, and housing market analysts. And the results from the latest quarterly release show home prices are expected to go up every year through 2027 (see graph below):

 

And while the projected increase in 2024 isn’t as large as 2023, remember home price appreciation is cumulative. In other words, if these experts are correct after your home’s value rises by 3.32% this year, it should go up by another 2.17% next year.

If you’re worried home prices are going to fall, here’s the big takeaway. Even though prices vary by local area, experts project they’ll continue to rise across the country for years to come at a pace that’s more normal for the market.

What Does This Mean for You?

If you’re not convinced yet, maybe these numbers will get your attention. They show how a typical home’s value could change over the next few years using the expert projections from the HPES. Check out the graph below:

 

In this example, let’s say you bought a $400,000 home at the beginning of this year. If you factor in the forecast from the HPES, you could potentially accumulate more than $71,000 in household wealth over the next five years.

Bottom Line

If you’re someone who’s worried that the South Lake Tahoe Real Estate prices are going to fall, rest assured a lot of experts say it’s just the opposite – nationally, home prices will continue to climb not just next year, but for years to come. If you have any questions or concerns about what’s next for home prices in our local area, let’s connect. 

South Lake Tahoe Real Estate Market Update

South Lake Tahoe Real Estate Update- The Worst Home Price Declines Are Behind Us

 

The South Lake Tahoe Real Estate market seems to be following the national norm- Low inventory and stabilizing home prices. 

If you’re following the news today, you may feel a bit unsure about what’s happening with home prices and fear whether or not the worst is yet to come. That’s because today’s headlines are painting an unnecessarily negative picture. Contrary to those headlines, home prices aren’t in a freefall. The latest data tells a very different and much more positive story. Local home price trends still vary by market, but here’s what the national data tells us.

If we take a year-over-year view, home prices stayed positive – they just appreciated more slowly than they did at the peak of the pandemic. To get a more detailed picture of some of the trends in the market, we need to look at monthly data. 

The monthly graphs below use recent reports from three sources to show that the worst home price declines are already behind us, and prices are on their way back up nationally.

The story this more detailed monthly view tells us is that the last year has been a tale of two halves in the housing market. In the first half of 2022, home prices were climbing, and they peaked in June. Then, in July, home prices started to decline (shown in red in the graphs above). And by roughly August or September, the trend began to stabilize. As we look at the most recent data for the early part of 2023, these graphs also show a recent rebound in momentum with prices ticking back up. Monthly changes in home prices are gaining steam as we move into the busier spring season. 

While one to two months doesn’t make a trend, the fact that all three reports show prices have stabilized is an encouraging sign for the housing market. The month-over-month data conveys a clear, but early, consensus that a national shift is taking place today. In essence, home prices are starting to tick back up.

Andy Walden, Vice President of Enterprise Research at Black Knight, says this about home price trends: 

“Just five months ago, prices were declining on a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis in 92% of all major U.S. markets. Fast forward to March, and the situation has done a literal 180, with prices now rising in 92% of markets from February.”

Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at CoreLogic, explains the limited supply of homes available for sale is contributing to this positive turn:

“ . . . prices in many large metros appeared to have turned the corner, with the U.S. recording a second month of consecutive monthly gains. . . . The monthly rebound in home prices underscores the lack of inventory in this housing cycle.” 

Here’s What This Means for You 

  • Sellers: If you’ve been holding off on selling because you’re worried about what was happening with home prices and how it would impact the value of your home, it may be time to jump back in and partner with an agent to list your house. You don’t have to put your needs on hold any longer because the latest data shows a turn in your favor. 
  • Buyers: If you’ve been waiting to buy because you didn’t want to purchase something that would decrease in value, you now have the peace of mind things are looking up. Buying now lets you make your move before home prices climb more and gives you the chance to own an asset that typically grows in value over time. 

If we look at the localized South Lake Tahoe Real Estate market, there are currently only 53 active residential listings on the South Tahoe MLS. There are 49 single family homes and 4 condo townhouses. This is actually down from 90 active listings just one year ago. There are currently 33 pending sales which is up from only 27 last month however, the escrow count is down from 56 from May, 2022.

Spring is typically the listing season in Lake Tahoe so I would anticipate that we will see the active listing count closer to 100 by July, bringing a more robust selection of homes for buyers to choose from. 

Bottom Line

If you put off your plans to move because you were worried about home prices falling, data shows the worst is already behind us and prices are actually rising nationally. Let’s connect so you have an expert on the local market to explain what we’re seeing with home prices in our area. I can be reached at 530-416-2625 or via email at bj******@ch****************.com!

South Lake Tahoe Real Estate Update

After two years of massive home appreciation, the South Lake Tahoe real estate market has finally cooled down. We have shifted from a sellers market where multiple offers and over asking price sales with minimal contingencies were the norm, to more of a balanced market. 

The average days on the market has tripled from 29 days to 92 days and price reductions are becoming more common than they have in

years. 

Mortgage interest rates and economic concerns of a looming recession have caused many buyers to pause their search for a Tahoe property. With 30 year fixed interest rates now hovering around 7%, more than double what they were in January, low housing affordability is adversely affecting home sales. 

The inventory of homes for sale in South Lake Tahoe remains very low which is the biggest reason that we have not transitioned into a buyers market.

There are currently only 90 active single family homes and 11 condo/townhouses on the market in the city and county areas of South Lake Tahoe. There are 40 pending single family homes and condo/townhouses accounting for 28.4% of the inventory being in escrow.

 

 

In November of 2021 there were only 91 active listings however there were 82 pending sales, double the amount of pending sales currently listed on the MLS.

Here is a breakdown of the current 113 residential escrows by price range:

  • Under $200,000- 0  0%
  • $201,000 to $300,000- 0   0%
  • $301,000 to $400,000- 1  2.5%
  • $401,000 to $500,000- 7
  • $501,000 to $600,000- 7
  • $601,000 to $700,000- 7
  • $701,000 to $800,000- 3
  •  
  • $801,000 to $999,000- 7
  • Over $1 Million- 8

So far this year there have been 585 single family and condo/townhouse sales in South Lake Tahoe which is down from 684 sales during the same year to date in 2021. The median sales price is actually up to $707,750 from $689,500 last year but I suspect that number will change in a downward direction by the end of 2022.

Just Sold Listing in South Lake Tahoe
Recently Sold in The Tahoe Keys

The good news for sellers is that there are still many buyers actively looking for both primary residences as well as second homes in Tahoe that were unsuccessful in securing a property during the pandemic. It will just be important to price their properties correctly as most homebuyers are looking for value priced properties to compensate for the higher interest rates and market jitters. 

I do see the South Lake Tahoe Real Estate market improving in the next 12 months as interest rate hikes slow down and as inventory increases so this could be a great opportunity for buyers looking to find their dream home over the next year! For more information about the South Lake Tahoe Real Estate market please reach out to Brent Johnson at 530-416-2625 today!

April 2020 Real Estate Review

The South Lake Tahoe Real Estate market is seeing a decrease in the total number of listings from April 2019. This includes the Active Listings and those that are currently in Escrow. Out of the 201 Active Listings, none are Short Sale and there are 2 REO properties. Out of the 39 properties in Escrow, none are Short Sales and one is an REO. In April of 2019, there were 246 Total Listings, 189 Active Listings, and 57 Escrows. 

The median sales price for a Single-Family Home in South Lake Tahoe as of April 2020 is $470,000.00 which is down 2.1% from April 2019. In April of 2019, the median sales price was $480,000. There are currently 39 properties in Escrow and represent 19.4% of the total inventory. Here is a breakdown by price range of the 39 Escrows:

  • Under $200,000- 0  0%
  • $201,000 to $300,000- 3   7.7%
  • $301,000 to $400,000- 9  30.8%
  • $401,000 to $500,000- 8  
  • $501,000 to $600,000- 3
  • $601,000 to $700,000- 6
  • $701,000 to $800,000- 3
  • $801,000 to $999,000- 3
  • Over $1 Million- 4 (4 are Chase of which 0 are Zalanta)

From January 1, 2020 to April 27, 2020 there have been a total of 147 closings which is up slightly from the number of closings during the same time in 2019 when there were 133 closings. 

Even though we have had more closings so far this year, I expect there to be less home sales in the first half of 2020 compared to 2019 judging by the lower number of pending sales. There has been an increase of activity over the last week which is quite encouraging despite the shelter in place requirements. 

I currently have 17 active listings and most of the listings had showings over the last weekend. 6 of my listings received multiple showings and we received offers on 5 of the listings which is a big jump in activity from the previous weekend.

Be sure to check out my Virtual Showing Videos by accessing my YouTube Channel and you can access it by the link –Brent Johnson’s YouTube Channel Click “Subscribe” for upcoming Virtual Showing Videos! 

You can also follow along on my Social Media pages for new listings!

Brent Johnson’s Instagram Page

Brent Johnson’s Facebook Page

March 2020 Real Estate Review

The South Lake Tahoe Real Estate market is seeing a slight decrease in the total number of listings from March 2019. This includes the Active Listings and those that are currently in Escrow. Out of the 216 Active Listings, none are Short Sale and there are 4 REO properties. Out of the 54 properties in Escrow, none are Short Sales and none are REO. 

The median sales price for a Single-Family Home in South Lake Tahoe as of March 2020 is $470,000.00 which is down 1.3% from March 2019. There are currently 54 properties in Escrow and represent 37% of the total inventory. Here is a breakdown by price range of the 54 Escrows:

  • Under $200,000- 1  1.9%
  • $201,000 to $300,000- 2  5.6%
  • $301,000 to $400,000- 12  27.8%
  • $401,000 to $500,000- 14  
  • $501,000 to $600,000- 4
  • $601,000 to $700,000- 6
  • $701,000 to $800,000- 6
  • $801,000 to $999,000- 4
  • Over $1 Million- 5 (4 are Chase of which 0 are Zalanta)

From January 1, 2020 to March 30, 2020 there have been a total of 123 closings which is about the same from the amount of closings during the same time in 2019 which was 121 closings. 

We are currently operating during the “Shelter in Place” order that the State of California is under as we are an essential service. We are needing to be creative in order for our clients to be able to purchase homes virtually during this time. I offer Virtual Showings on all of our Active Listings this way people can watch the video first to make sure this is something they are interested in. Buyer’s much be Prequalified prior to looking at a property and must watch the Virtual Showing video prior to entering a property. I can also FaceTime or Zoom any of my clients through properties listed on the MLS if you are not able to come to South Lake Tahoe at this time. 

You can access all of my Virtual Showings by visiting my YouTube Channel- Brent Johnson’s YouTube Channel

Please be sure to “Subscribe” to not miss out on future showings!

Stay home, stay safe, and be well! 

February 2020 Real Estate Review

The South Lake Tahoe Real Estate market is seeing a slight increase in the total number of listings from February 2019. This includes the Active Listings and those that are currently in Escrow. Out of the 159 Active Listings, none are Short Sale and there are 4 REO properties. Out of the 72 properties in Escrow, none are Short Sales and 1 REO. 

The median sales price for a Single-Family Home in South Lake Tahoe as of February 2020 is $475,000.00 which is the same as February of 2019. There are currently 72 properties in Escrow and represent 31.2% of the total inventory. Here is a breakdown by price range of the 72 Escrows:

  • Under $200,000- 1  1.4%
  • $201,000 to $300,000- 5  8.3%
  • $301,000 to $400,000- 12  25%
  • $401,000 to $500,000- 17  
  • $501,000 to $600,000- 6
  • $601,000 to $700,000- 11
  • $701,000 to $800,000- 8
  • $801,000 to $999,000- 6
  • Over $1 Million- 6 (4 are Chase of which 0 are Zalanta)

Today, we are faced with several new challenges regarding how Real Estate will be affected due to the worldwide Coronavirus pandemic. We should expect that property showings will be slow since we are required to social distance and in some cases “Shelter in Place”. We will see our market get a later start to our Spring Listing Season as in years before, we would see that would have just begun. 

We are still out showing properties, however, we are following strict guidelines to comply with social distancing. We are following our clients instead of riding in the same car to ensure the 6-foot rule, using hand sanitizer frequently before and after entering a property, refraining from touching surfaces, and staying home if we are not feeling well. 

In South Lake Tahoe currently, the Casinos, restaurants and bars, some hotels, and other local business are closed until further notice. It will be interesting to see when our town will be back up and running! 

Until then, wash your hands and stay well!