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Timing the South Lake Tahoe Real Estate market?

For those timing the South Lake Tahoe Real Estate market, this is why Today’s Housing Supply Is a Sweet Spot for Sellers

 

Timing the South Lake Tahoe Real Estate Market
3567 Saddle Drive

 

Wondering if it still makes sense to sell your house right now? The short answer is, yes. And if you look at the current number of homes for sale, you’ll see two reasons why. This national article is conducive of the South Lake Tahoe Real Estate market. 

An article from Calculated Risk shows there are 15.6% more homes for sale now compared to the same week last year. That tells us inventory has grown. But going back to 2019, the last normal year in the housing market, there are nearly 40% fewer homes available now:

a graph with red and blue squares

The South Lake Tahoe real estate market is following the national trend. As of 3/3/24 there were only 76 single family homes and 22 condo/townhouses that were active on the South Lake Tahoe MLS in the city and county areas of South lake Tahoe. 

Here’s a breakdown of how this benefits you when you sell.

1. You Have More Options for Your Move

Are you thinking about selling because your current house is too big, too small, or because your needs have changed? If so, the year-over-year growth gives you more options for your home search. That means it may be less of a challenge to find what you’re looking for.

So, if you were holding off on selling because you were worried you weren’t going to find a home you like, this may be just the good news you needed. Partnering with a local real estate professional can help you make sure you’re up to date on the homes available in your area.

2. You Still Won’t Have Much Competition When You Sell

But to put that into perspective, even though there are more homes for sale now, there still aren’t as many as there’d be in a normal year. Remember, the data from Calculated Risk shows we’re down nearly 40% compared to 2019. And that large a deficit won’t be solved overnight. As a recent article from Realtor.com explains:

“. . . the number of homes for sale and new listing activity continues to improve compared to last year. However the inventory of homes for sale still has a long journey back to pre-pandemic levels.”

For you, that means if you work with an agent to price your house right, it should still get a lot of attention from eager buyers looking for South Lake Tahoe real estate and could sell fast.

Bottom Line

If you’re a homeowner looking to sell, now’s a good time. You’ll have more options when buying your next home, and there’s still not a ton of competition from other sellers. If you’re ready to move, let’s connect to get the ball rolling.

Click here for a FREE CMA

December South Lake Tahoe Real Estate Market Update

South Lake Tahoe Real Estate market update:

Experts Project Home Prices Will Rise over the Next 5 Years Nationally, Including Lake Tahoe

South Lake Tahoe Real Estate update: Even though the median sales price in South Lake Tahoe has been on the decline, experts predict that we will see a recovery in 2014. The current median sales price according to the South Lake Tahoe MLS is $692,500 which is down 3.7% from last year and down from $721,000 in February, 2022. 

The South Lake Tahoe Real Estate market has started to pick up some momentum now that mortgage interest rates have dropped about 1% since they reached over 8%, the highest they have been in over 20 years. Currently, buyers with a good FICO score can obtain a 30 year fixed mortgage for around 7.22%.

There are currently 49 pending single family homes and condo/townhouses on the South Tahoe MLS which is up from only 32 pending sales last year on 12/6/22. 

The good news for homebuyers is that we now have 142 active listings (122 single family homes and 20 condo/townhouses), last year to date, there were only 87 active listings.

The 49 pending sales represent 25.7% of the total inventory in escrow and the breakdown by price range of the 49 escrows is as follows:

  • Under $200,000- 0  0%
  • $201,000 to $300,000- 2   4.1%
  • $301,000 to $400,000- 3  10.2%
  • $401,000 to $500,000- 5
  • $501,000 to $600,000- 6
  • $601,000 to $700,000- 10
  • $701,000 to $800,000- 6
  • $801,000 to $999,000- 5
  • Over $1 Million- 12  24.5%

 

The overall closings for 2023 is significantly down from 2022. So far there have been 402 total closings on the South Lake Tahoe MLS compared to 610 last year. 

On the National level

Even with so much data showing home prices are actually rising in most of the country, there are still a lot of people who worry there will be another price crash in the immediate future. In fact, a recent survey from Fannie Mae shows that 23% of consumers think prices will fall over the next 12 months. That’s nearly one in four people who are dealing with that fear – maybe you’re one of them.

To help ease that concern, here’s what the experts say will happen with home prices not just next year, but over the next five years.

Experts Project Ongoing Appreciation

While seeing a small handful of expert opinions may not be enough to change your mind, hopefully, a larger group of experts will reassure you. Here’s that larger group.

The Home Price Expectation Survey (HPES) from Pulsenomics is a great resource to show what experts forecast for home prices over a five-year period. It includes projections from over 100 economists, investment strategists, and housing market analysts. And the results from the latest quarterly release show home prices are expected to go up every year through 2027 (see graph below):

 

And while the projected increase in 2024 isn’t as large as 2023, remember home price appreciation is cumulative. In other words, if these experts are correct after your home’s value rises by 3.32% this year, it should go up by another 2.17% next year.

If you’re worried home prices are going to fall, here’s the big takeaway. Even though prices vary by local area, experts project they’ll continue to rise across the country for years to come at a pace that’s more normal for the market.

What Does This Mean for You?

If you’re not convinced yet, maybe these numbers will get your attention. They show how a typical home’s value could change over the next few years using the expert projections from the HPES. Check out the graph below:

 

In this example, let’s say you bought a $400,000 home at the beginning of this year. If you factor in the forecast from the HPES, you could potentially accumulate more than $71,000 in household wealth over the next five years.

Bottom Line

If you’re someone who’s worried that the South Lake Tahoe Real Estate prices are going to fall, rest assured a lot of experts say it’s just the opposite – nationally, home prices will continue to climb not just next year, but for years to come. If you have any questions or concerns about what’s next for home prices in our local area, let’s connect. 

South Lake Tahoe Real Estate Market Update

South Lake Tahoe Real Estate Update- The Worst Home Price Declines Are Behind Us

 

The South Lake Tahoe Real Estate market seems to be following the national norm- Low inventory and stabilizing home prices. 

If you’re following the news today, you may feel a bit unsure about what’s happening with home prices and fear whether or not the worst is yet to come. That’s because today’s headlines are painting an unnecessarily negative picture. Contrary to those headlines, home prices aren’t in a freefall. The latest data tells a very different and much more positive story. Local home price trends still vary by market, but here’s what the national data tells us.

If we take a year-over-year view, home prices stayed positive – they just appreciated more slowly than they did at the peak of the pandemic. To get a more detailed picture of some of the trends in the market, we need to look at monthly data. 

The monthly graphs below use recent reports from three sources to show that the worst home price declines are already behind us, and prices are on their way back up nationally.

The story this more detailed monthly view tells us is that the last year has been a tale of two halves in the housing market. In the first half of 2022, home prices were climbing, and they peaked in June. Then, in July, home prices started to decline (shown in red in the graphs above). And by roughly August or September, the trend began to stabilize. As we look at the most recent data for the early part of 2023, these graphs also show a recent rebound in momentum with prices ticking back up. Monthly changes in home prices are gaining steam as we move into the busier spring season. 

While one to two months doesn’t make a trend, the fact that all three reports show prices have stabilized is an encouraging sign for the housing market. The month-over-month data conveys a clear, but early, consensus that a national shift is taking place today. In essence, home prices are starting to tick back up.

Andy Walden, Vice President of Enterprise Research at Black Knight, says this about home price trends: 

“Just five months ago, prices were declining on a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis in 92% of all major U.S. markets. Fast forward to March, and the situation has done a literal 180, with prices now rising in 92% of markets from February.”

Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at CoreLogic, explains the limited supply of homes available for sale is contributing to this positive turn:

“ . . . prices in many large metros appeared to have turned the corner, with the U.S. recording a second month of consecutive monthly gains. . . . The monthly rebound in home prices underscores the lack of inventory in this housing cycle.” 

Here’s What This Means for You 

  • Sellers: If you’ve been holding off on selling because you’re worried about what was happening with home prices and how it would impact the value of your home, it may be time to jump back in and partner with an agent to list your house. You don’t have to put your needs on hold any longer because the latest data shows a turn in your favor. 
  • Buyers: If you’ve been waiting to buy because you didn’t want to purchase something that would decrease in value, you now have the peace of mind things are looking up. Buying now lets you make your move before home prices climb more and gives you the chance to own an asset that typically grows in value over time. 

If we look at the localized South Lake Tahoe Real Estate market, there are currently only 53 active residential listings on the South Tahoe MLS. There are 49 single family homes and 4 condo townhouses. This is actually down from 90 active listings just one year ago. There are currently 33 pending sales which is up from only 27 last month however, the escrow count is down from 56 from May, 2022.

Spring is typically the listing season in Lake Tahoe so I would anticipate that we will see the active listing count closer to 100 by July, bringing a more robust selection of homes for buyers to choose from. 

Bottom Line

If you put off your plans to move because you were worried about home prices falling, data shows the worst is already behind us and prices are actually rising nationally. Let’s connect so you have an expert on the local market to explain what we’re seeing with home prices in our area. I can be reached at 530-416-2625 or via email at bj******@ch****************.com!

South Lake Tahoe Real Estate Forecast

South Lake Tahoe Real Estate Forecast for 2023

Over the past year, home prices in South Lake Tahoe have been a widely debated topic. On a national level, some have said we’ll see a massive drop in prices and that this could be a repeat of 2008 – which hasn’t happened. Others have forecasted a real estate market that could see slight appreciation or depreciation depending on the area of the country. And as we get closer to the spring real estate market, experts are continuing to forecast what they believe will happen with home prices this year and beyond.

Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at CoreLogic, says:

“While 2023 kicked off on a more optimistic note for the U.S. housing market, recent mortgage rate volatility highlights how much uncertainty remains. Nevertheless, the continued shortage of for-sale homes is likely to keep price declines modest, which are projected to top out at 3% peak to trough.”

Additionally, every quarter, Pulsenomics surveys a panel of over 100 economists, investment strategists, and housing market analysts regarding their five-year expectations for future home prices in the United States. Here’s what they said most recently:

So, given this information and what experts are saying about home prices, the question you might be asking is: should I buy a home this spring? Here are three reasons you should consider making a move:

  1. Buying a home helps you escape the cycle of rising rents. Over the past several decades, the median price of rent has risen consistently. The bottom line is, rent is going up.
  2. Homeownership is a hedge against inflation. A key advantage of homeownership is that it’s one of the best hedges against inflation. When you buy a home with a fixed-rate mortgage, you secure your housing payment, so it won’t go up like it would if you rent.
  3. Homeownership is a powerful wealth-building tool. The average net worth of a homeowner is $255,000 compared to $6,300 for a renter.

The current inventory of homes for sale in South Lake Tahoe has remained extremally low, partially due to the record breaking snowfall that the Sierran Nevada’s have seen this year. With over 52 feet of snow recorded (and still counting) this winter, listing and selling homes has taken a bit of a back seat.

There are currently only 36 active single family homes and 8 condo/townhouses listed on the South Lake Tahoe MLS. This is up slightly from last year to date. The number of homes in escrow is down significantly from last year. Currently there are 33 pending sales on the mls compared to 8o pending sales in March, 2022. 

I am predicting that we will see a significant increase in the number of homes for sale from April through July as the weather improves and as the snow melts. This historical winter has delayed many sellers from listing and additionally, we usually see a significant bump in our housing inventory in the late spring and early summer.

Experts are projecting slight price depreciation in the housing market this year, followed by steady appreciation. Given that, you may be wondering if you should move ahead with buying a home this spring. The decision to purchase a home is best made when you do it knowing all the facts and have an expert on your side.

If you have any questions about the South Lake Tahoe real estate market, please call me today at 530-416-2625 or shoot me an email at bj******@ch****************.com! 

Preparing your Tahoe home for the market!

Spring into Action: Boost Your Tahoe Home’s Curb Appeal with Expert Guidance

Spring into Action: Boost Your Home’s Curb Appeal with Expert Guidance | MyKCM

To sell your home this spring, it may need more preparation than it would have a year or two ago. Today’s housing market has a different feel. Inventory  of homes for sale is still historically low but there are less buyers in the market. So, if a house has been sitting on the market for a while, that’s a sign it may not be hitting the mark for potential buyers. But here’s the thing. Right now, homes that are updated and priced at market value are still selling fast. 

Today, homes with curb appeal that are presented well are still selling quickly, and sometimes over asking price. According to Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at realtor.com:

“In a market where costs are still high and buyers can be a little choosier, it makes sense they’re going to really zero in on the homes that are the most appealing.”

With the spring buying season just around the corner, now’s the time to start getting your house ready to sell. And the best way to determine where to spend your time and money is to work with a trusted real estate agent who can help you understand which improvements are most valuable in your local market.

Curb Appeal Wins

One way to prioritize updates that could bring a good return on your investment is to find smaller projects you can do yourself. Little updates that boost your curb appeal usually work well. Investopedia puts it this way:

“Curb-appeal projects make the property look good as soon as prospective buyers arrive. While these projects may not add a considerable amount of monetary value, they will help your home sell faster—and you can do a lot of the work yourself to save money and time.”

Small cosmetic updates, like refreshing some paint and power washing the exterior of your home, create a great first impression for buyers and help it stand out. Work with a real estate professional to find the low-cost projects you can tackle around your house that will appeal to buyers in your area.

Not All Updates Are Created Equal

When deciding what you need to do to your house before selling it, remember you’re making these repairs and updates for someone else. Prioritize projects that will help you sell faster or for more money over things that appeal to you as a homeowner.

The 2022 Remodeling Impact Report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) highlights popular home improvements and what sort of return they bring for the investment (see graph below):

Spring into Action: Boost Your Home’s Curb Appeal with Expert Guidance | MyKCM

Remember to lean on your trusted real estate advisor for the best advice on the updates you should invest in. They’ll know what local buyers are looking for and have the latest insights of what your house needs to sell quickly this spring.

Bottom Line

As we approach the spring season, now’s the time to get your house ready to sell. Let’s connect today so you can find out which updates make the most sense.

South Lake Tahoe Housing Market

The Two Big Issues the South Lake Tahoe Housing Market’s Facing Right Now

The Two Big Issues the Housing Market’s Facing Right Now | MyKCM

The biggest challenge the South Lake Tahoe housing market’s facing is how few homes there are for sale. Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, explains the root causes of today’s low supply:

“Two dynamics are keeping existing-home inventory historically low – rate-locked existing homeowners and the fear of not finding something to buy.”

There are currently ONLY 35 single family homes listed on the South Lake Tahoe MLS in the city and county areas of South Lake Tahoe and only 10 condo/townhouses. The crazy thing is that there are 39 pending single family homes and 7 pending condo/townhouses which means that over 50% of the properties for sale in South Lake Tahoe are under contract!

Let’s break down these two big issues in today’s housing market.

Rate-Locked Homeowners

According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), the average interest rate for current homeowners with mortgages is less than 4% (see graph below):

But today, the typical mortgage rate offered to buyers is over 6%. As a result, many homeowners are opting to stay put instead of moving to another home with a higher borrowing cost. This is a situation known as being rate locked.

When so many homeowners are rate locked and reluctant to sell, it’s a challenge for a housing market that needs more inventory. However, experts project mortgage rates will gradually fall this year, and that could mean more people will be willing to move as that happens.

The Fear of Not Finding Something To Buy

The other factor holding back potential sellers is the fear of not finding another home to buy if they move. Worrying about where they’ll go has left many on the sidelines as they wait for more homes to come to the market. That’s why, if you’re on the fence about selling, it’s important to consider all your options. That includes newly built homes, especially right now when builders are offering concessions like mortgage rate buydowns.

What Does This Mean for You?

These two issues are keeping the supply of homes for sale lower than pre-pandemic levels. But if you want to sell your house, today’s market is a sweet spot that can work to your advantage.

Be sure to work with a local real estate professional to explore the options you have right now, which could include leveraging your current home equity. According to ATTOM:

“. . . 48 percent of mortgaged residential properties in the United States were considered equity-rich in the fourth quarter, meaning that the combined estimated amount of loan balances secured by those properties was no more than 50 percent of their estimated market values.”

This could make a major difference when you move. Work with a local real estate expert to learn how putting your equity to work can keep the cost of your next home down.

Bottom Line

Rate-locked homeowners and the fear of not finding something to buy are keeping housing inventory low in South Lake Tahoe and across the country. But as mortgage rates start to come down this year and homeowners explore all their options, we should expect more homes to come to the market in the late spring and early summer.